Summary
With winter consumption picking up across Asia and major global dairy markets, demand is strengthening for liquid milk, cheese, butter and functional dairy beverages. International dairy prices have shown a modest rebound, supported by tighter supply in exporting countries and restocking by Chinese importers. This update reviews current pricing trends, consumption drivers and the ongoing structural shift in China’s dairy import portfolio.
I. Market Overview – Winter Season Lifts Dairy Demand
As temperatures drop, consumption of dairy products typically rises across China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Demand for UHT milk, yogurt, cream, hot milk beverages and bakery-use butter increases noticeably during December–February. Retailers report stronger sell-through in ready-to-drink milk and high-protein dairy beverages, while bakery and café channels are ramping up procurement of cheese and butter for holiday menus.
Global markets are also experiencing seasonal tightness. Lower milk production in the EU and Oceania—linked to weather variability and farm-cost pressures—has tightened export availability, supporting firmer prices in Q4.
II. Price Trends – Moderate Rebound Across Key Dairy Categories
International dairy benchmarks have risen from mid-year lows, with whole milk powder (WMP), skim milk powder (SMP), cheese and butter all trending upward:Butter and cheese have seen the strongest Q4 rebound driven by bakery and food-service demand.Milk powders remain supported by restocking in Asia and the Middle East.Domestic Chinese prices for UHT milk and yogurt have stabilized after earlier promotional pressure, while premium imported categories continue to command higher margins.Producers in New Zealand and Europe report tighter milk flows, which may keep global prices firm through early 2026.
III. China’s Import Structure Shifts – Higher Value Products Gain Share
China’s dairy import structure is continuing to evolve:
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Liquid milk imports remain stable but increasingly sourced from EU suppliers with strong brand recognition.
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Cheese imports continue rising, driven by fast-growing food-service and home-baking demand.
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Butter imports show renewed momentum ahead of the Lunar New Year bakery peak.
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Milk powder imports are shifting toward higher-value, application-specific ingredients (e.g., bakery-grade SMP, infant-nutrition WPC/WPI).
Importers are also diversifying suppliers—beyond New Zealand and the EU—to include more offerings from Australia, South America and Central Asia.
IV. Winter Demand Drivers – From Retail to Food-Service Channels
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Retail: UHT milk, flavored milk, probiotics and high-protein dairy drinks see measurable volume increases during cold months.
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Cafés & bakeries: Require more cream, butter and cheese for holiday menus, festive pastries and hot beverages.
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Home cooking: Rising interest in home baking and Western cuisine boosts consumption of mozzarella, cream cheese and whipping cream.
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Health & nutrition: Dairy positioned as a protein-rich, immunity-supporting food category continues to attract younger and family consumers.
V. Outlook – Firm Demand Into Early 2026
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Short-term: Dairy prices are expected to stay firm through the winter peak, supported by seasonal demand and limited export supply from major producers.
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Medium-term: China’s import mix will gradually prioritize higher-value dairy ingredients as food-service and home-baking sectors expand.
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Strategic takeaway: Importers and distributors should secure Q1 supply early, while dairy processors can capture value by emphasizing functional, high-protein and application-specific products.
More detailed pricing data, import breakdowns and seasonal demand analysis are available in the CCM Dairy Products China Monthly Report.
About CCM
CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China’s agriculture, chemicals, food & feed, and life-science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers price and trade analysis, market reports and customized intelligence services.
CCM also provides advertising and brand-promotion solutions for dairy, food ingredient and agricultural suppliers, helping producers reach targeted industry buyers and enhance visibility across global markets.
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